Wizard Of Oz Blackjack Basic Strategy
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i am using basic strategy to play blackjack online on a blackjack basic strategy game and i got 2 cards that total 14 and the dealer had 1 card which was a 3 and basic strategy says to stand so i clicked stand and then the dealer ended up with a 18 or 19 i cant remember which but the dealer won and i lost $100 and it really annoys me, not because i lost $100 but because before i knew about card counting (by the way i'm not card counting on the basic strategy game, i'm just using a basic strategy chart) and basic strategy i used to just guess whether to hit or stand based on the numbers on the cards and back then before i followed basic strategy i would of hit because 14 is a very low number but now i know about basic strategy and i followed it and its supposed to make me less likely to lose and yet i lost. is blackjack basic strategy correct?
i'm using this basic strategy:
please help.
i'm using this basic strategy:
please help.
Beethoven9th
Using basic strategy does not mean that you will win every time you play. In fact, unless you are counting, you will still lose regardless of whether or not you use BS. The difference is that BS will allow you to lose a lot less compared to your way of playing.
ams288
Basic strategy is your best bet if you're not counting cards. You are seriously questioning it based on ONE hand where it didn't work out for you? If that's the case, play slots.
Don't worry, there isn't some worldwide conspiracy out there to promote basic strategy even though it doesn't really work.
Don't worry, there isn't some worldwide conspiracy out there to promote basic strategy even though it doesn't really work.
FleaStiff
I agree. IF you have 14 and dealer's up card is a 3, then the proper Basic Strategy option for the player is to Stand and force the dealer to take a card in the hope that the dealer will bust, but its not absolutely guaranteed, its merely the optimal play for the player to make.
DJTeddyBear
Play that hand a million times. THEN form an opinion....I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
24Bingo
With no upcard will the dealer bust more than 50% of the time, and certainly not a 3 (that's why you should hit a 12 against a 3). Basic strategy still gives you a slightly losing game, with well over 50% of hands being lost (doubles and naturals making up most of the difference), and on average about one bet being lost every 150-500 hands, depending on rules. Even beyond that, simple luck is going to work against you sometimes. You were dealt a bad hand, made the best move, and lost. It's going to happen more often than not. If you can't stomach that, don't play $100 a hand.Wizard Of Oz Blackjack Basic Strategy Tactics
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
Julian
Hey guys,
I posted a few days ago asking for some sources to verify the expected returns you have depending on your card and the one of the dealer. These expected return are what helps you establish basic strategy. And re verifying basic strategy is my goal !! So, I was redirected to the wizard of odds appendix: /games/blackjack/appendix/1/.
I verified what I had found when you stand with a 21. I have the same results as the wizard except for the 10 and ace and I don't understand the wizard's results. Let me explain:
- For exemple when you stand with a 21 and the dealer has an ace, the wizard says you have 0.922194 expected return. But let's simplify our experience and say that except when the dealer has a 10, you win and double your bet. We are simplifying and what we will find will be a slightly bigger expected return than in reality (because the dealer can tie with you by getting other cards for example two 5).
And yet we find that the average gain (if you bet 1) is: (16/52)*1 [representing the case when there is a tie]+ (36/52)*2 [when you win and double your bet] =1.69230769231
We have a 0.69230769231 average gain.
As you can see even though we should get a higher than what is shown in the appendix, we get a significantly lower expected return. Could someone tell me if I made a mistake or if there is a problem with the appendix.
Thanks for reading,
Julian
I posted a few days ago asking for some sources to verify the expected returns you have depending on your card and the one of the dealer. These expected return are what helps you establish basic strategy. And re verifying basic strategy is my goal !! So, I was redirected to the wizard of odds appendix: /games/blackjack/appendix/1/.
I verified what I had found when you stand with a 21. I have the same results as the wizard except for the 10 and ace and I don't understand the wizard's results. Let me explain:
- For exemple when you stand with a 21 and the dealer has an ace, the wizard says you have 0.922194 expected return. But let's simplify our experience and say that except when the dealer has a 10, you win and double your bet. We are simplifying and what we will find will be a slightly bigger expected return than in reality (because the dealer can tie with you by getting other cards for example two 5).
And yet we find that the average gain (if you bet 1) is: (16/52)*1 [representing the case when there is a tie]+ (36/52)*2 [when you win and double your bet] =1.69230769231
We have a 0.69230769231 average gain.
As you can see even though we should get a higher than what is shown in the appendix, we get a significantly lower expected return. Could someone tell me if I made a mistake or if there is a problem with the appendix.
Thanks for reading,
Julian
JimRockford
A two card 21 is a blackjack and returns 2.5x (gains 1.5x).Edit: Also a player blackjack ties a dealer two-card 21, but is payed in full even if the dealer draws to 21. That should make your calculation easier.
'Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things.' - Isaac Newton
Julian
A two card 21 is a blackjack and returns 2.5x (gains 1.5x).
Edit: Also a player blackjack ties a dealer two-card 21, but is payed in full even if the dealer draws to 21. That should make your calculation easier.
But in the appendix( wizardofodds . com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/ ) he's talking about standing on 21, isn't it implied that it is not a blackjack ? This could explain the difference, but how did he calculate the expected return if without differenciating the two cases (blackjack and 21 made of more than two cards) ?
Especially since, in the other cases (when the dealer has from 2 to 9) I have the exact same expected returns (without considering the 21 as a blackjack).
Wizard Of Oz Blackjack Basic Strategy Games
Last edited by: Julian on Jul 22, 2016
charliepatrick
I think the wizard's number when the dealer has an Ace up-card is after Dealer has checked for Blackjack. Once you know the dealer hasn't got a 10 as the down-card, the chances of Dealer making 21 (not BJ) is actually quite low. The table below Stand soft 17 (/ Hit soft 17) confirms that the dealer will get 21 7.78% of the time, so the other 92.22% time you'll win 1 unit if you have 21.| 21 | 9.57% |
| 20 | 20.69% |
| 19 | 20.69% |
| 18 | 20.69% |
| 17 | 8.30% |
| Bust | 20.07% |
I've typed these numbers in, so please forgive me if any typos.
Note: These figures do not apply to European BJ where the dealer does not take a second card until after all Players have acted.
Julian
I think the wizard's number when the dealer has an Ace up-card is after Dealer has checked for Blackjack. Once you know the dealer hasn't got a 10 as the down-card, the chances of Dealer making 21 (not BJ) is actually quite low. The table below Stand soft 17 (/ Hit soft 17) confirms that the dealer will get 21 7.78% of the time, so the other 92.22% time you'll win 1 unit if you have 21.| 21 | 7.78% |
| 20 | 18.89% |
| 19 | 18.89% |
| 18 | 18.89% |
| 17 | 18.89% |
| Bust | 16.65% |
I've typed these numbers in, so please forgive me if any typos.
Note: These figures do not apply to European BJ where the dealer does not take a second card until after all Players have acted.
Hey charliepatrick,
Thanks I didn't think about this ! I like your answer, I will have to check in detail but I don't see any other explanation. I still have a question, why do these figures don't apply to European BJ, what difference does it make to take the card at the beginning or after all Players have acted ?Julian
charliepatrick
In the US your [three+ card] 21 cannot lose to a BJ as the dealer has already checked. In Europe your 21 could still lose to a BJ, so your chances of winning are much less. Technically all the percentages are multiplied by 9/13 and a row with 4/13 dealer gets BlackJack added. So your 21 only wins 9/13*92%, i.e. about 63.84%.